Welcome to this week’s Recycling, Scrap Metal, Commodities and Economic Report. BENLEE Roll-off Trailers produces this report every week to support our customers, suppliers, and partners. This week the market celebrated a new record high. But underneath the optimism there are important warning signals worth understanding. Here is the full picture.

Steel & Scrap

U.S. raw steel production fell slightly to 1.87 million tons — down 1.5% from last week but up 6.7% year to date. Capacity utilization held at 81%. The 50% tariff remains the structural foundation of domestic output. AI data center construction is adding a powerful new demand driver. These facilities require enormous amounts of structural steel. That combination of tariff support and new demand is keeping production near multi-year highs.

Scrap steel #1 HMS held steady at $365/gross ton. Supply and demand are balanced. Hot-rolled coil jumped to $59.60/cwt ($1,190/ton). The 50% tariff is giving domestic mills significant pricing power. Steel company profits are strong. But every downstream industry that uses steel — from construction to appliances to transportation equipment — is absorbing those higher input costs.

Oil: Good News With a Serious Caveat

WTI crude fell to $87.36/barrel on reports of a preliminary U.S.-Iran deal. That is welcome news. But analysts are delivering an important caution. Even if a deal is reached oil flow recovery through the Strait of Hormuz will be slow. Infrastructure takes time to restart. Supply will not normalize quickly. And here is the most important thing to understand right now. If no deal is finalized within approximately one month global oil inventories will bleed down to critically low levels. At that point a dramatic price spike becomes very likely. This is not a distant risk. It is a near-term timeline. Watch this situation every week.

U.S. crude production rose to 13.715 million barrels per day. Record exports and higher-for-longer prices are keeping output elevated. The rig count jumped to 429. Producers are expanding because they believe tight global supplies will keep prices supported. That gives U.S. producers room to grow output without immediately crashing prices.

Copper and Aluminum

Copper fell slightly to $6.39/lb but remains very high. The structural demand story from AI, EVs, and clean energy has not changed. These are decade-long demand drivers not short-term trades. Aluminum slipped slightly to $1.67/lb ($3,675/MT) on Iran deal optimism. But a new supply risk emerged this week. Guinea — one of the world’s largest bauxite producers — announced export controls on bauxite. Bauxite is the raw material used to make aluminum. That is a significant new development that could offset any Hormuz-related supply relief. Watch Guinea closely.

PCE Inflation: Highest in Three Years

The April PCE inflation index rose 3.8% year over year — the highest reading in three years. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. Gasoline, housing, utilities, and food all rose. Autos, financial services, and clothing fell. The increases are concentrated in essential spending categories — the things people cannot easily cut from their budgets. That makes this inflation particularly painful for lower and middle-income households.

Trade, GDP, and Spending

The April goods trade deficit narrowed to $84.4 billion as exports surged 4% and imports rose just 1.9%. That is a positive signal for U.S. manufacturing and a modest GDP tailwind. But Q1 2026 GDP was revised down to 1.6% — below the earlier 2.0% estimate. Consumer spending and investment both came in weaker than initially reported. Business investment in equipment surged — a genuine positive. But net trade was worse than expected. The economy is growing. It is just not accelerating. April personal spending rose 0.5% in dollar terms. But after adjusting for inflation actual spending fell. People are spending more dollars to buy less. That is what inflation does to real purchasing power.

Durable Goods: Read Past the Headline

April durable goods orders jumped 7.9% — the strongest monthly gain in a year. But that headline number is almost entirely driven by non-defense aircraft orders. Strip those out and look at non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft — the best proxy for business investment in equipment and machinery. That number fell 1.1%. Businesses are not accelerating investment. That is a cautionary signal that the headline durable goods number completely obscures.

Wall Street at a Record High

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183 points to close at 51,033 — a new all-time record. AI’s explosive growth, hopes for a Middle East deal, and solid corporate earnings drove the rally. High stock prices are supporting spending among high-net-worth individuals and that wealth effect is a real economic positive. But the gap between how financial markets feel and how everyday consumers feel — with PCE at 3.8% and real spending falling — is worth keeping in mind as we head into summer.

As always, reach out with any questions. Have a safe and profitable week.

— Greg Brown, President & CEO, BENLEE Roll-off Trailers benlee.com | Roll-off Trailers | Roll-off Trucks | Gondola Trailers | Lugger Trucks | Parts

Welcome to this week’s Recycling, Scrap Metal, Commodities and Economic Report. BENLEE Roll-off Trailers produces this report every week to support our customers, suppliers, and partners. This week brought some striking contrasts. Consumer confidence crashed to an 80-year low. Copper surged on structural demand. The S&P hit a new record. And a quiet warning signal emerged from the appliance industry. Here is the full picture.

Steel & Scrap

U.S. raw steel production rose to 1.856 million tons — up 1.4% from last week and up 6.2% year to date. The 50% tariff continues to provide a solid production floor despite slow economic growth.

Scrap steel #1 HMS held near $368.33/gross ton. Supply and demand remain balanced. Hot-rolled coil slipped slightly to $56.50/cwt ($1,130/ton) but is still up 27% from one year ago. The tariff wall is enabling that dramatic price increase. Steel company stock prices are at record highs on Wall Street. That is excellent for the steel industry. But a 27% increase in steel prices in one year adds meaningful inflationary pressure across autos, appliances, construction, and industrial equipment.

Oil: Elevated and Structurally Disrupted

WTI crude fell to $95.42/barrel but remains far above pre-war levels. Almost no oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz right now. That is not a temporary blip. Even when flows eventually restart it will take many months for prices to normalize. The disruption has fundamentally reset global energy supply chains. U.S. crude production slipped slightly to 13.573 million barrels per day. Oil companies are not rushing to invest in new production. They are focused on returning cash to shareholders. The rig count edged up to 410 on strong per-well productivity. But the industry posture is cautious. High prices today do not guarantee high prices when expensive new wells come online.

Copper: A Perfect Storm of Demand

Copper jumped to $6.28/lb this week. Three major structural forces are driving demand simultaneously. AI data center construction requires vast amounts of copper wiring and components. Global electric vehicle adoption is accelerating. Clean energy infrastructure — solar, wind, and grid upgrades — is consuming copper at record rates. At the same time the Middle East conflict is disrupting shipments of sulfuric acid used in copper mining. That is squeezing supply exactly when demand is surging. This is not a short-term trade. It is a structural shift in the copper market.

Aluminum Stays Constrained

Aluminum fell slightly to $1.58/lb ($3,503/MT) but remains elevated. The continued blocking of 9% of global aluminum supply from the Middle East is the dominant factor. That supply constraint will not ease until the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

Consumer Sentiment: The Lowest in 80 Years

The May University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey fell to 48.2. That is the lowest reading since the survey began in 1946. People are worried about gas prices, tariffs, and declining real purchasing power. They feel squeezed. There is one genuinely encouraging data point within the report: one-year inflation expectations eased slightly to 4.5% from 4.7% last month. That is a small improvement but a meaningful one. The Federal Reserve watches this number carefully.

Jobs Beat — But Read the Fine Print

April payrolls added 115,000 jobs — ahead of expectations. Healthcare, transportation, and warehousing grew. Federal government, information, and manufacturing fell. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%. But the details tell a more complicated story. The employment rate dropped to 59.1% — a four-plus year low. The number of unemployed rose by 134,000. Total employment fell by 226,000. The labor force itself shrank. When the unemployment rate holds steady because people are leaving the workforce rather than finding jobs that is a different signal than headline numbers suggest.

Wages Losing Ground to Inflation

April average hourly earnings rose 3.6% year over year — the weakest pace since May 2021. That helps keep overall inflation in check. But workers earning 3.6% more while paying 43% more for gasoline compared to last year are losing real purchasing power. That disconnect is showing up directly in the consumer sentiment numbers.

Factory Orders: A Strong Beat

March factory orders rose 1.5% from February — nearly three times the 0.5% forecast. Computers and electronic products surged 3.6% — the strongest gain since 2001. AI investment is clearly and powerfully showing up in manufacturing demand. Durable goods rose 0.8% and non-durable goods climbed 2.1%. It was a broad and encouraging reading across the manufacturing sector.

A Warning Sign From Whirlpool

The Dow rose 110 points to close at 49,609. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high on the strength of the jobs report, solid earnings, and soaring AI investment. But one data point deserves attention. Whirlpool reported orders at recession-level industry lows. Appliance purchases are a reliable indicator of consumer confidence in big-ticket spending. When people stop buying washers and refrigerators it often signals deeper caution about household finances. This is worth monitoring carefully in the weeks ahead as a leading indicator of broader consumer health.

As always, reach out with any questions. Have a safe and profitable week.

— Greg Brown, President & CEO, BENLEE Roll-off Trailersbenlee.com | Roll-off Trailers | Roll-off Trucks | Gondola Trailers | Lugger Trucks | Parts

Welcome to this week’s Recycling, Scrap Metal, Commodities and Economic Report. BENLEE Roll-off Trailers produces this report every week to support our customers, suppliers, and partners. This was another week of sharp contrasts. Consumer confidence collapsed to a 78-year low. And yet the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high. Here is the full picture.

Steel & Scrap

U.S. raw steel production rose to 1.848 million tons. That is up 0.3% from last week and up 5.8% year to date. Capacity utilization reached 80%. The 50% tariff continues to support production in a slow-growth environment.

Scrap steel #1 HMS fell slightly to $368.33/gross ton. Good scrap flows are keeping supply healthy. Demand is steady. Hot-rolled coil edged up to $55.25/cwt ($1,105/ton). A slight demand increase and continued tariff support are driving the move.

Oil: Rising Again

WTI crude rose to $94.40/barrel. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. That is keeping global supply constrained. The U.S. is now exporting record amounts of crude oil and natural gas. That is a notable development. Record exports could eventually incentivize more domestic production. For now, U.S. output slipped slightly to 13.585 million barrels per day. Producers remain cautious. The Administration’s stated goal of $50/barrel oil makes new well investment difficult to justify. The rig count fell to 407. Strong productivity per well is keeping output relatively stable despite fewer rigs.

Non-Ferrous Metals

Copper dipped slightly to $6.03/lb but remains near its all-time high. Chinese smelters hit record copper output in March. Supply is rising. But so is demand. High oil prices are pushing more consumers toward electric vehicles. More EVs mean substantially more copper consumption. That structural demand story is not going away. Aluminum rose to $1.63/lb ($3,603/MT) — near a four-year high. Refineries in the UAE and Bahrain have been damaged. The closed Strait of Hormuz is blocking 9% of global aluminum supply. Both supply shocks are keeping prices elevated.

Manufacturing Hits a 4-Year High

The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54 — the best growth reading since May 2022. Production and new orders both hit four-year highs. Longer delivery times also contributed to the index gain. Those delays are a direct result of the closed Strait of Hormuz. Strong demand is real. But supply chain stress is also real.

Consumer Sentiment: A 78-Year Record Low

The April University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey fell to 49.8. That is the weakest reading recorded since 1948. The economy itself is functioning. Unemployment is low. Retail sales are rising. But people are deeply frustrated. Prices remain high. They have not come down. In 2024 the Administration promised energy prices would be cut in half within 12 months. That promise has not been kept. That gap between expectation and reality is driving sentiment lower across every demographic group.

Inflation Expectations Creeping Higher

The University of Michigan one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.7% — a seven-month high. The five-year outlook climbed to 3.5% — the highest in six months. These are the measures the Federal Reserve watches most carefully. Elevated long-term inflation expectations make it very hard to justify cutting interest rates. Housing, autos, and business investment all suffer when rates stay high.

Labor Market Holding Steady

Weekly continuing jobless claims edged up to 1.821 million but remain low. The economy has been in a low-hire, low-fire pattern for approximately 18 months. Jobs are stable. Growth is just not accelerating. That is the quiet story underneath all the headline volatility.

Retail Sales Stronger Than Expected

March retail sales rose 1.7% from February. That is a strong number. Higher gasoline prices were a big part of it. But furniture and vehicle sales also increased. Higher tax rebates helped consumers absorb the pain at the pump. Consumer spending is proving more resilient than confidence surveys would suggest.

Wall Street at All-Time Highs

The Dow surged 1,530 points to close at 49,447. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time record. A Middle East ceasefire and strong gains in tech stocks drove the rally. Markets are reacting powerfully to any positive geopolitical signal. Volatility remains very high in both directions. Stay informed and stay flexible.

As always, reach out with any questions. Have a safe and profitable week.

— Greg Brown, President & CEO, BENLEE Roll-off Trailers benlee.com | Roll-off Trailers | Roll-off Trucks | Gondola Trailers | Lugger Trucks | Parts

Welcome to this week’s Recycling, Scrap Metal, Commodities and Economic Report, produced by BENLEE Roll-off Trailers for our customers, suppliers, and partners across the industry.

This was a consequential week. The Federal Reserve held rates firm, the Dow shed over 1,000 points, and the Middle East conflict continues to destroy energy infrastructure with no resolution in sight. Here’s the full breakdown.

Steel & Scrap

U.S. raw steel production slipped to 1.774 million tons — down 0.9% from last week but still up 4.9% year to date. The drag is coming from high energy costs bleeding into the broader economy.

Scrap steel #1 HMS composite held at $388.33/gross ton. Warmer weather is improving scrap flow domestically, but global economic uncertainty is suppressing export demand — a push-pull that’s keeping prices range-bound for now.

Hot-rolled coil steel inched up to $53.20/cwt ($1,064/ton). Steady domestic demand combined with 50% tariff protection is giving U.S. mills both pricing power and margin discipline.

Oil & Energy

WTI crude settled at $98.20/barrel. Home heating oil has doubled year to date. Major production infrastructure across the Middle East has been destroyed, and bond and commodity markets alike are pricing in a prolonged conflict. U.S. crude output slipped slightly to 13.668 million barrels per day, while the rig count ticked up to 414 — a signal that higher prices are beginning to pull capital back into drilling, even as steel tariffs are inflating the cost of pipe and equipment.

Non-Ferrous Metals

Copper dropped to $5.30/lb. — its lowest in three months. High energy costs are strangling manufacturing demand globally, and fresh U.S. inflation data gives the Fed little room to cut rates and provide relief. Aluminum fell to $1.45/lb. ($3,195/MT). China’s demand is running below last year’s pace, and significant production capacity in Bahrain and Qatar has shut down — factors that are offsetting each other for now.

The Federal Reserve & Interest Rates

The Fed held the funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% and updated its economic projections. The 2026 GDP forecast was nudged up to 2.4% from 2.3% — but that’s still well short of the 4%+ the Administration has been publicly targeting. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.387%, its highest since July 2025, reflecting bond market concern that war-driven inflation will keep rates elevated longer than hoped. The 30-year mortgage tracks this yield closely — meaning housing affordability continues to erode. January new home sales confirmed it, falling to a 587,000 annualized rate.

Inflation

February core producer prices (wholesale, excluding food and energy) rose 3.9% year over year — the sharpest increase in three years. Tariffs remain the primary engine. There is one potentially encouraging note: many of the current tariffs took effect last April, so year-over-year comparisons may begin to ease in April 2026 as the base effect moderates the numbers. Watch for that. January new orders for manufactured goods rose 0.1% from December, and excluding transportation equipment, orders were up 0.4% — the third consecutive monthly gain.

Wall Street

The Dow fell 1,048 points to 45,577 — a four-month low. The S&P 500 hit a six-month low. The twin pressures of escalating U.S.-Iran military activity and the Fed’s rate hold pushed investors to the exits.

As always, feel free to call or email with any questions. Have a safe and profitable week.

— Greg Brown, President & CEO, BENLEE Roll-off Trailers benlee.com